最大可能损失MPL和营业中断值的计算

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①　Potential economic loss of person injury(RMB):

2215271 ≤M-MPL≤ 2512817

Remark:

Tianjin xxx Chemical Co., Ltd.  has excellent process equipment in good condition, high level of automation, more reliable operation of safety facilities, complete HSE manage system in function since it was put into operation, and the risks are generally controllable. However, after all, it is a typical chemical company, which is a factory always using hazardous chemical, and the plant involves one major hazardous source at the first level, one major hazardous source at the third level and one major hazardous source at the fourth level, as well as the key supervised hazardous process - polymerization process, and there are many contractors working in the plant, so there exists still risks such as fire, explosion,poisoning and asphyxiation, which may lead to accidents., which may lead to accidents. Therefore, we assume that when barriers go wrong, such as liquid oxygen station occur fire and explosion, then the number of people who may be directly affected at the front-line is 2 potential fatalities, 1 potential serious injury not yet disabled, and 1 potential minor injury hospitalized, and calculated with the statutory death compensation standard of 985660RMB in 2023.

②　The maximum possible asset loss A-MPL is: 404114985.3RMB.

It includes the cost of accident disposal and the economic loss value of assets, such as the cost of cleaning up accident scene, the cost of investigation, the cost of on-site inspection, the cost of compensation, reconstruction, inflation, etc., but it does not include the loss of person injury.

The plant is located within the chemical park, and the plan layout and safety distance etc. meet the design specification requirements, so the likelihood of major losses due to fire and explosion disasters in the vicinity is low. Even through the plant is located within Bohai Bay, which is seldom affected by typhoons and floods, and the design and construction of the plant also fully consider the factors of earthquake, typhoon and rainstorm prevention, and the structure meets the requirements of the design specifications.

Therefore, the major economic losses of the factory mainly come from internal, especially from fire and explosion accidents.  The equipment and facilities in the production area are defined as major hazardous sources and are of high value. Assuming that a fire /explosion occurs when all safety protection measures fail, but the safety protection distance of each building (structure) in the plant meets the code requirements, and the production area, reprocessing and warehouse and office areas are relatively independent from each other, so the accident that causes the greatest loss at one time is most likely to be in the production unit and tank area.In comprehensive consideration of the dangerous unit asset value A, inflation factor R, the construction/reconstruction period T, the cost of accident disposal C includes the cost of cleaning up the accident scene, the cost of investigation the On-site inspection cost, accident compensation cost, etc. The cost of restart-up M includes lack of detailed design scheme and data support, investment adjustment. and according to the site conditions and asset balance sheet, the dangerous unit is divided into three parts in total: production unit area (including tank area) A1, product inventory (including storage room ) A2, housing buildings (including fixed equipment) A3. 

The corresponding values of R, T, C and M are shown in the following table.

According to the formula xxx yields.

The maximum possible asset loss A-MPL = 404114985.3.

③　Fraud risk level: negligible risk

④　Potential total economic loss（EML）:200,847,907.80RMB(Not include M-MPL)

It refers to the sum of all losses after an accident, including BI and A-MPL,and then calculated based on the likelihood of accident occurrence. The calculation formula is as follows:.

Based on the total risk level L3, the range of EML ratio K is 0.35-0.64. Since no fatality occurring in the factory,  take the average value is 0.495.

BI+A-MPL*K

The result is:810890.08+404114985.3*0.495=EML=200,847,907.80

⑤　Single potential business interruption value BI value: ¥810,890.08

Factory business occurs business interruption mainly due to power outages, serious natural disasters or fire and explosion accidents. The plant is powered by dual circuit power supply system and has an emergency generator system and UPS system. Since the plant has been put into operation, there has not been any accident of sudden power failure resulting in production interruption, and the reliability of power supply is extremely high. From the assessment of regional geological conditions and natural disasters, the likelihood of business interruption due to natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods at the plant is relatively low. After all, the plant is a typical chemical company, which using hazardous chemical, involving major hazardous sources and key supervised hazardous processes, and there are many many contractors working in the plant, considering that the occurrence of accidents is  occasional, so the biggest likelihood of business interruption is from the impact of fire and explosion. Considering the strict requirement of the process of chemical company stopping for maintenance and recommissioning work, it is estimated that normal production can be resumed after 7 days of shutdown. Therefore the loss of production stoppage is.

872300*7=¥6106100

Calculations based on a projected marginal profit margin of 13.28% in 2023 result in a single potential shutdown loss of

6106100*13.28% = ¥810,890.08

Note: The impact factor of this business interruption does not consider the government's administrative factors.

①　潜在的伤亡经济损失为（RMB）：

2215271 ≤潜在伤亡经济损失M-MPL≤ 2512817

备注：

天津xx化学有限责任公司的工艺装备水平优良，自动化程度高，安全设施可靠运行，自从2010年投产至今HSE体系完备并运转良好，风险总体可控。但毕竟是典型的化工企业，属于危险化学品使用单位，工厂涉及一级重大危险源1个，三级重大危险源1个和四级重大危险源1个，以及重点监管危险工艺—聚合工艺，且厂区作业外协单位较多，因此仍存在火灾爆炸和中毒窒息等危险性，可能致使事故发生。于是，我们假设当企业最薄弱的环节发生严重事故时，比如爆炸或火灾，其可能在第一线直接受到冲击影响的人数为潜在死亡2人，潜在重伤未残1人，潜在轻伤住院1人，并以2023年法定死亡赔偿标准 985660RMB计算。

②　最大可能的资产损失A-MPL为：404114985.3元。

它包括事故处理费用+资产的经济损失价值，如清除事故残余费用、调查事故费用、现场检查费用、事故赔偿费用，如重建费用，通货膨胀等，但不包括人伤亡的损失。

工厂位于化工园区内，平面布置和安全距离等满足设计规范要求，因此受附近的火灾爆炸灾害影响而导致重大损失的可能性较小。另外，工厂位于渤海湾内，很少受到台风和洪水的影响，而且工厂在建筑设计和施工时也充分考虑防地震、防台风和防暴雨的因素，结构满足设计规范要求。

因此，工厂发生重大经济损失的可能主要源于企业自身，尤其是火灾爆炸事故。生产区域内的设备设施有重大危险源且价值较高，假设所有的安全防护措施都失效的情况发生了火灾爆炸，但厂区内各建（构）筑物的安全防护距离满足规范要求，生产区域、后处理及仓库和办公区域之间相对独立，因此一次性造成的最大损失的事故最有可能是在生产装置及罐区。综合考虑到危险单位资产价值 A、通货膨胀因素R，新建/重建工期T，清除事故残余费用、调查事故费用、现场检查费用、事故赔偿费用等 C，缺少详细设计方案和数据支持，投资调整 M，并根据现场状况和资产表，将危险单元共计分为三部分：生产装置区（含罐区）A1、产品库存（含库房）A2、房屋建筑物（含固定装备）A3，其相对应的R、T、C、M取值见下表：

根据计算公式xxxx得出：

最大可能的资产损失A-MPL=404114985.3元。

③　企业道德风险等级：可忽略风险

企业或项目可能经济总损失EML：200,847,907.80元(不含人身伤害损失)

它指发生事故后所有的损失之和，包括BI和A-MPL，即损失包括利润损失和财产的损失，然后基于可能发生事故的概率进行计算。计算公式如下：

基于总体风险等级L3，EML ratio取值K的范围为0.35-0.64，因工厂未出现过死亡事故，故取平均值0.495。

BI+A-MPL*K

结果为：810890.08+404114985.3*0.495=EML=200,847,907.80元

④　单次潜在营业中断值BI值：810，890.08元

工厂营业发生营业中断的情况主要为停电、严重自然灾害或火灾爆炸泄露事故。工厂实行两路电源供电，且有应急发电机系统和UPS系统，投产至今尚未发生过突然断电导致生产中断的事故，供电可靠性极高。从区域地质条件及自然灾害评估情况看，工厂因地震洪水等自然灾害而导致的营业中断可能性较小。毕竟工厂是典型的化工企业，属于危险化学品使用单位，涉及重大危险源和重点监管危险工艺，且厂区作业外协单位较多，考虑事故的发生有其偶然性，因此工厂营业中断的最大可能是来自火灾爆炸的影响。考虑化工企业停车检修复工流程的严格性，按照停产7天后能恢复正常生产估算。因此停产损失为：

872300*7=6106100元

根据2023年预测的边际利润率为13.28%进行计算，则单次潜在停产损失为：

6106100*13.28%=810，890.08元

备注：该营业中断的影响因素不考虑政府的行政管理因素。